A new Boston Globe poll shows Charlie Baker now with a nine-point lead in the race for Massachusetts governor. Democratic nominee Martha Coakley’s campaign has called the poll an “outlier,” which isn’t as rare as you might think.
Other recent polls have shown Coakley and Baker in a dead heat, so the Globe poll was greeted with great enthusiasm by the Baker campaign and dismissal from Coakley supporters.
“This is the kind of stuff that pollsters sweat over, of course. You worry about having that bad poll,” says UMass polling director Brian Schaffner, who was not involved in this new poll.
The Globe poll says its results have a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points. But further fine print includes a hedge found in most polls: the results can really only be trusted 95 percent of the time.
“Every once in a while you’re going to get a sample that’s just a bad sample, that’s way off,” Schaffner says. “That’s the five percent of the time in which you might get a result that’s outside of the margin of error.”
Schaffner says we won’t know with any certainty if the Globe poll is one of those five percent, until more polls come out, including one of his own next week.